Archive for August, 2008

I had an affinity for Highway 90 before and now I love it to death. We ran into an hour or so worth of traffic around Irish Bayou and the rest was smooth sailing. Except the few times we tried to jump on I-10. Made it in just about 7 hours which is about the same time we made when we took the road home from Pensacola earlier this year.

Good news about the weakening of Gustav. Really hoping to dodge a bullet. I just heard that Katrina was a Cat 5 at this stage in the game so that’s reassuring.

Look who is fighting to be behind Nagin in this national press conference. Fielkow and Carter. Arnie looks scared. Being the guy behind the guy worked well for Bernard Kerik until he screwed up.

I just saw one of these fly over. I can honestly say I am optimistic that if the shit blows through it might not be a total fuck up afterward. And if it ends up not being a total fuck up it will make the original fuck up look that much worse because it will no longer be blamed on circumstance, rather, men.

… nothing to suggest it’s going to not effect the area so we are heading out.

As soon as we get to where we are headed the media fast will begin. I’ll allow Weather Underground, Stormpulse and NHC but I just don’t want to hear anyone telling me about the storm because, as I recall from Katrina, they don’t use any sort of tact or consideration and only serve to further distress the viewers who live in effected areas. So, no CNN, Weather Channel or anything else but silent, mostly unbiased and sensational chart and models for us.

Media fasts are necessary sometimes. We employed the tactic after Sept. 11 and I’ll need to utilize it in the next few days. I can handle circumstance, I can’t deal with frenetic energy of 24-hour news.

On Gustav, there isn’t much to hope for at this stage. I can only hope that his predicted westward turn happens sooner than expected and spares New Orleans, Houma, Lafitte and the rest of beautiful Acadiana. Houston should be prepared. The storm surge scenarios on the West Bank are worrisome but ultimately we will just have to wait and see.

Talk y’all on the outside.

An attempt to pronounce the various computer models is as follows…

GFS – “Gifs”
UKMET – “Yook-Met”
NGFDL – “Nug-Fiddle”
HWRF – “Hawarf!”

and finally, the most awesome sounding model…

NOGAPS
– “No muhfuckin’ gaps! Don’t you know our name? We are no damn gaps!”

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The morning forecast discussion has me utterly perplexed as it contains the following phrases…

best estimate

complicated evolution

One big question

It would not be surprising

we’ve opted

is possible

Hopefully

We have to watch that turn. The spaghetti is going to be all over the place today.

Now Ze German is trekking to the south west (?) and they have pushed the forecast over to the west of us and pushed landfall back to early Tuesday. Yesterday they had him making landfall as a Cat 2 and now they bumped it up to a Cat 3 even though he weakened last night. But hold on! The spaghetti is “in agreement” so he’s got that going for him.

What sucks about the latest landfall is it puts New Orleans in the dread NE corridor where all the shit hits the fan. Check this Ivan satellite and watch the red stuff to see an example. Somewhere in there the house I grew up in was destroyed.


I wonder why the Jamaicans are so calm?
Funny that the thing is right above them and they are still watching it. I know! It must be all the Red Stripe and Ganja! (Mental note to get some Red Stripe).

2008 is going to be remembered as the the year of the fucked-up Gulf and Caribbean storms. Look at this.

Then Hannah is out there making an appearance. It’s crazy out there y’all. Keep watchin’.

All this hurricane and Katrina talk has me thinking about a post made by an ignorant little Florida girl a while back. It was called “Hurricanes, Florida Style” and though I already retorted I saw something a week or so ago that made me think of it again.

You said a lot of ignorant things in that post but when you said…

We get hurricane warnings constantly. Most of the time, I yawn. And honestly, if it’s a Category 1 or 2, it’s a non-event… unless, of course, you are a surfer, in which case you can be counted upon to be at the beach trying to take advantage of the good waves, all the way up to a Category 4, when police have to be there to forcibly keep them away.

I knew it didn’t say much for you or the surfers. Then when I saw this…

I thought of you and the surfers. And Fay was just an itty bitty tropical storm.

Edit 2: Oh, I know why Gustav is coming this weekend. It’s God punishing us again. How many times can a community get smote in one decade? Say, that reminds me, have Y’all seen this?

Edit:From the 2 p.m. forecast discussion out of NHC, “One should not read much into such shifts of the forecast track since the typical error of a 5-day prediction is over 300 miles.”

Our local paper’s Web site has ordered us to clean out your freezer today and asking Just what is a 3-day emergency food supply? Meanwhile, “the West Bank levee board and some businesses have installed a robust line of wire cages filled with sand along that southern stretch.”

It’s actually more comforting to have the track pointing right at New Orleans 100 hours out.

Here is Ivan 6 days out.

Katrina 4 days out.

Rita three days out

And then there is the spaghetti which is not in agreement.

And just to fully adorn my amateur meteorologist cap, I think the next day is going to matter a lot as to the German’s final destination.

Gustav is worrisome. But let’s save the panic for the weekend shall we? Because I’m wanting to see Vavavoom at Mimi’s on Friday and sell some art on Saturday. Might be a clearance!

Fay was easily dismissed. She either was never headed in New Orleans’ direction and by the time she did, she was faded Fay.

Not so much the case with this Gustav, who has an entire warm and fuel-rich Gulf to cross before he reaches landfall. Monsters are created in that trek. All the tracks point to a landfall west of us which, if it’s a small storm and is far enough west would be fine for us and bad for Acadiana or beyond. But this one isn’t something that can be dismissed just yet and it’s worrisome. Not easily dismissed like Fay. If he becomes one of those Cat 5 monsters that swallows up the Gulf like Ivan, Rita and Katrina and makes landfall in W. Jeff, Lafourche or Terrebone it would be awful for everyone there and us.

He’s got plenty of time to turn.

But then there are two Cape Verde lows out there with medium potential for formation as well.

If any one is dreading having to watch any of the “three-headed monster” of 24-hour news channels, there is hope!

WYES
is covering it!

So less BS hopefully.

I love this channel. Y’all ever catch “Stepping Out“? It’s awesome.