Fay was easily dismissed. She either was never headed in New Orleans’ direction and by the time she did, she was faded Fay.
Not so much the case with this Gustav, who has an entire warm and fuel-rich Gulf to cross before he reaches landfall. Monsters are created in that trek. All the tracks point to a landfall west of us which, if it’s a small storm and is far enough west would be fine for us and bad for Acadiana or beyond. But this one isn’t something that can be dismissed just yet and it’s worrisome. Not easily dismissed like Fay. If he becomes one of those Cat 5 monsters that swallows up the Gulf like Ivan, Rita and Katrina and makes landfall in W. Jeff, Lafourche or Terrebone it would be awful for everyone there and us.
He’s got plenty of time to turn.
But then there are two Cape Verde lows out there with medium potential for formation as well.