In the latest report, the NHC finally backed off Ike’s predicted strengthening before landfall. It had been anticipated Ike would (strangely) strengthen a few miles off the coast. The mea culpa is in this latest forecast discussion.
Three factors seem to converge here. 1.) Though NHC did an excellent job predicting the path of Gustav, they had a more difficult time with the unpredictable Ike. Watch the top of the 5-day forecast as it zooms all around the Antilles, the East Coast and the entire Gulf Coast from Key West to Corpus Christi. 2.) As the 5-day forecast began to come together there was a large northern turn made by the storm between Wednesday at 7 p.m. and Wednesday at 10 p.m. Which left Galveston and Houston residents two days to plan an evacuation. 3.) Turns out Ike’s a turner so, the National Weather Service, sees a potential disaster and pulls out the “”forecast of least regret” and predicts “certain death.”
Not saying anyone is at fault but the victims if the shit ends up hitting the fan but, and this sentiment seems to be growing stronger, it is going to be regarded with skepticism the next time one of these “the end is nigh” forecasts sees the light of day. And though they are trying to save lives in the immediate by-and-by, they are perhaps contributing to some further down the road when citizens grow distrustful of officials trying to scare them into fleeing rather than just telling the truth.